The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century

This book is a publication of the CSIS Global Aging Initiative, explores how population aging and population decline will constrain the ability of the United States and other developed countries to maintain national and global security over the next few decades. It also examines the security implications of emerging demographic trends in different regions of the developing world. While some political scientists and security experts argue that the forces of demography are pushing the world toward greater peace and stability, this study concludes that they pose growing security threats—and that the period of greatest danger lies just over the horizon in the 2020s.

The Graying of the Great Powers offers the first comprehensive assessment of the geopolitical implications of "global aging"—the dramatic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. It describes how demographic trends in the developed world will constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security in the decades ahead. It also explains how dramatic demographic change in the developing world—from resurgent youth bulges in the Islamic world to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia—will give rise to serious new security threats. While some argue that global aging is pushing the world toward greater peace and prosperity, The Graying of the Great Powers warns that a period of great geopolitical danger looms just over the horizon. Neither the triumph of multilateralism nor democratic capitalism is assured. The demographic trends of the twenty-first century will challenge the geopolitical assumptions of both the left and the right.

Author:Richard Jackson and Neil Howe

Contributors:Rebecca Strauss and Keisuke Nakashima

Publisher:Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

ISBN Number:978-0-89206-532-5 (pb)

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